The European Union is likely to miss most of the 2030 green targets it set itself in a bid to become the world’s first climate-neutral continent by midcentury, a new report by the European Environment Agency warns.
The report — which comes as escalating trade and geopolitical tensions divert Brussels’ attention away from environmental policy — examines 28 key targets under the Green Deal, from greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration to recycling targets and nature restoration.
Of those 28 targets, the EU is on track or likely on track to meet just eight, the report finds.
“The pace of change for most of these indicators will have to increase substantially in the coming years,” warned the EEA, which is the EU’s environment advisory body. “This points to the need for a deep transformation of Europe′s energy, mobility, food and industrial systems, as well as our built environment.”
The report measures progress made under the eighth Environmental Action Programme, aimed at guiding the long-term implementation of the Green Deal.
The “most concerning” findings come from environmental pressures linked to European production and consumption. The EU’s consumption footprint is actually projected to increase further by 2030 — going against a set Green Deal goal.
Targets on boosting carbon sequestration, the circular economy, organic farming and reducing the EU’s consumption footprint are most at risk. But many more — on everything from biodiversity to nitrates pollution — are likely offtrack, according to the EU agency.
The EU is unlikely to meet any of its biodiversity objectives, for example, including pledges to legally protect at least 30 percent of the EU’s land area and of its sea area by 2030.
On top of that, the EU is probably not on track to reduce economic losses associated with extreme weather and climate events by 2030, nor is it likely on course to reduce water scarcity, environmentally harmful fossil fuel subsidies or environmental inequalities linked to air pollution.
In happier news, it is “very likely” that a goal of reducing premature deaths from air pollution by 55 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 will be met — and maybe even exceeded if the pace of progress over the past 10 years continues to 2030.
The report acknowledges that many initiatives under the Green Deal are yet to be implemented, making it “too early to assess their full impact.”
Greening the Green Deal
The EEA makes an “urgent” call to strengthen the implementation of existing environmental legislation and for additional policies, such as concrete goals to reduce material footprint and policies to address the risks of climate change at the European level.
But the report comes as the EU gears up to “simplify” various strands of Green Deal legislation in the name of reviving the bloc’s struggling industry — striking a different tone to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s last mandate, which introduced a ream of landmark environmental laws.
Case in point: A so-called simplification package is due from the EU executive next Wednesday targeting new reporting rules for companies on environmental impacts and exposure to climate risks of their own activities as well as those of their supply chains.
That same day, a new Clean Industrial Deal is set to come out focused on decarbonizing and revitalizing EU industry, according to a draft obtained by POLITICO. It proposes to focus on the circular economy but makes no mention of the words “pollution” or “biodiversity.”
Back in December, EEA chief Leena Ylä-Mononen told POLITICO that “simplification” is a “problematic concept” because it potentially leaves the door open to deregulation. She urged EU leaders to “stay the course” on the Green Deal and on having the EU remain a global climate leader, despite increasing competition from China and the United States.
In a new statement on Thursday’s report, Ylä-Mononen called for “decisive action” to put the EU back on course, including “bolder implementation of existing legislation, additional measures where needed and ensuring there is sufficient financing to deliver our climate, environment and sustainability objectives.”